The 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards reveal a tightly contested year for independent cinema as expert predictions show unusual splits across major categories .
Next Best Picture assembled seven industry voices to forecast tonight’s winners: Alyssa Christian, Amy Kim, Cody Dericks, Daniel Howat, Ema Sasic, Matt Neglia, and Nadia Dalimonte . Their predictions expose a rare divide in Best Feature, where “Train Dreams” secured four votes against “Sorry, Baby’s” three, marking one of the closest races in recent memory .
The ceremony honors 2025’s independent films across 23 categories, including traditional film awards and expanded television recognition . Rose Byrne’s performance in “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” achieved perfect consensus, as did Eva Victor’s “Sorry, Baby” screenplay and “The Secret Agent” for international film .
FAST FACTS
- Event timing: February 15, 2026 ceremony for 2025 films
- Unanimous picks: Rose Byrne (Lead Performance), Eva Victor’s screenplay, “The Secret Agent” (International), Adolpho Veloso (Cinematography), “Adolescence” (Scripted Series)
- Closest race: Best Feature split 4-3 between “Train Dreams” and “Sorry, Baby”
- Breakthrough contender: SZA debuts in “One of Them Days”
- Budget category: John Cassavetes Award honors films under $1 million, with “Eephus” leading predictions
Television categories expanded this year to include Best New Scripted Series, where “Adolescence” swept all votes, and performance awards featuring Noah Wyle (“The Pitt”) as a lead contender . Erin Doherty earned unanimous support for “Adolescence” in the supporting category .
The predictions methodology remains unconfirmed in the source text. The Spirit Awards represent one of the final major ceremonies before the Academy Awards, often serving as a predictor for independent-minded Oscar voters .
What to watch next: Winners will be announced during today’s live ceremony, potentially reshaping Oscar momentum for smaller films.
Sources: Next Best Picture staff predictions published February 15, 2026
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